Apple AirPods vs Google Glass


You can read a German version of this article here

AirPods vs Glass

I am currently in a mood between anticipation and disappointment about a new gadget: Apple’s upcoming new wireless headphones AirPods. I see a significant potential in the new headphone device that is said to hit the stores in the end of October, and I’d love to try integrating it into my digital life. However, the AirPods’ shape is nearly identical to the one of the default iPhone headphones “EarPods”, and those just do not stay in my ears longer than a few seconds. Any pair of dirt-cheap no-name headphones are fitting better for me. As long as Apple won’t release a second version with a different shape, I won’t shell out the €179 for a pair of AirPods.

That’s a shame of course, because as a concept, I see much more in those little gadgets than just a wireless version of standard in-ear headphones. This Slate article and this one on TechCrunch do a good job explaining the product and the big picture behind. In regards to the strategical meaning for Apple and the implications for the users and the digital landscape, I actually see some major similarities to Google’s (failed) Augmented Reality headset Glass. Let’s have a closer look at that comparison. Continue Reading


KoHub: How a UK-born programmer created a community for traveling digital workers on a Thai island


A few weeks ago, I spent some days working from a coworking space called KoHub. It’s not your average coworking space: KoHub can be found on the tropical island of Ko Lanta, situated right in front of the shore of Thailand’s East Coast. Unlike places such as neighboring Phuket, Chiang Mai in Northern Thailand or Ubud on the Indonesian island of Bali, Ko Lanta in comparison must still be considered an insider tip for travelers and location independent workers alike. But probably not for too long. Tourism is growing and KoHub is thriving. I wanted to learn a bit more about why one would open a coworking space on an island and how the journey has been so far, so I sat down with James Abbott, a 39-year old UK-born programmer and global traveler who runs KoHub together with his team.

James, the most important question first: How’s your Internet connectivity at KoHub? Considering that the place is located on an island in Southern Thailand.

We have two lines, one with 100 Mbit/s downstream and one backup line with 50 Mbit/s. The upload speed for our main line is 30 Mbit/s. So I’d say it’s pretty good for the type of environment that we are in. One time, we had 90 people working at once at KoHub. That pushed the limits of course, but it was not a big issue.

90 people at once sounds crowded. Especially considering that KoHub is fairly young.

True, but we are a large enough space and of course that was a one-time peak. During the months of the low season, sometimes only 5 to 10 people are around. So the occupancy varies a lot. But overall the numbers grow nicely. KoHub indeed still is fairly young, and we are only now reaching the phase in which we are experiencing an increasing number of returning members, who also start to invite their friends. So the word is spreading.

James

KoHub founder James Abbott, with the view from his coworking space.

How did KoHub happen?

It’s a bit of a longer story. I left the UK 12 years ago with the goal of extensive traveling. I have been a programmer basically since the age of 6, but in 2004, if you wanted to see the world, you had to find alternative means of financing. No one was traveling with laptops back then. Wi-Fi was rare, and if you wanted to work, you had to go to Internet cafés, coding away with bad connections on bad computers. It was very hard to do much. I met some people who still tried it, but their tasks mainly were limited to email communication and selling or buying shares. Generally, working with the computer remotely was a bad idea. So instead I became a dive master and immediately an instructor, and then I used this job to fund my travels across South America, the South Pacific, Australia and South-East Asia. I think I ended up creating a coworking space because over the past ten years, I had various experiences related to remote work and community building. As another source of income I started to sell analytics software for professional Poker players over the Internet and programmed for websites of clients. At one point I lived on a sailing boat for 2 years, floating around in South-East Asia, managing websites for people (and in between I did diving). Eventually I thought I was done with Thailand, but a friend insisted that I should visit Ko Lanta. I came once, and then over and over again, often for periods ranging from a month to 6 months. The last 2 years I’ve been here full time, building KoHub.

Lanta

Ok, so that explains the choice of location. But what made you open up a coworking space?

First I came for diving and kept doing programming gigs as side projects. I was involved with a community website, which taught me a lot about dealing with problems of real people. And then, at one point, I visited Bali and Ubud, which is known for its vibrant coworking scene. I got so inspired and I realized that I wanted to try building a coworking community on an island I like living on, which of course was Ko Lanta, which had become like a second home. I knew of the house close the beach which had been empty for 2 years and decided to rent it. That was in mid 2014. In November 2014, after 3 months of renovation, KoHub opened its doors.

Where did the money come from?

From my own pocket. I had some savings, some money left from selling the sailing boat, and income from my programming jobs. First I thought I could run KoHub as a side project and continue to invest the revenue from programing and selling software into the coworking project. But I quickly had to face the reality that KoHub was a full-time job. I never knew how intense such an undertaking would be. Probably because I wanted do it right. I didn’t just want to create a shared office space on Ko Lanta. I aimed at building a community around a coworking space, which takes a lot of energy and also money. Nowadays we have about 10 full-time employees, also rent needs to be paid. The membership prices are rather low, because we want to make it affordable for many. So it definitely has been and still is a challenge. Also, because the bigger it gets, the more attention it requires.

Kohub

What does make KoHub special, in your eyes?

Apart from the fact that it is a part-open-air office on an island in Thailand, it’s definitely the community aspect and the fact that we organize activities daily. Some people of course want to keep themselves to themselves and that is fine. But generally, this environment attracts a certain type of person and it also gets the best out of these people. That’s why I’d say we’ve been thriving in regards of community. The relationships that I’ve seen develop here are really strong. For me, KoHub is also some kind of social experiment. I noticed that when you have over 40 people here at once, the dynamics change. Different cliques and smaller groups are forming. It can be emotionally draining to be involved, but it’s also absolutely fascinating.

When you described how you founded KoHub it sounds as it is easy as a foreigner to just open up a coworking space in Thailand…

In Thailand, starting a company is very doable. Keeping it going is very tricky. It takes a lot of energy and knowledge to keep going. Learning the Thai language helps of course. Considering how much time I’ve stayed here, I am utterly disappointed in my own knowledge of Thai. It is just very hard to find the time. In most cases, when you are busy, you want to communicate in a language which enables you to get things done. That’s why most of my staff prefers to talk to me in English 🙂

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At which point did you feel that KoHub is actually something which can work in the long-term in a sustainable way?

I still don’t really know haha. But sure, at one point it became clear to me that the team and I managed to built something which other people actually liked. But it is hard to put a date on that because we have been ever expanding. The space, the community, the team, everything is growing. It is the way I like it. And I like to see the community getting what it needs. It is kind of an organized anarchy at times. When we are really busy it can be pretty crazy. But still. We try to deliver what people are looking for, within our vision to create a kind of oasis for people who are on the road or who want to start experimenting with remote work, who come here, meet friends and move on.

How did the locals react to your project?

As a tourist destination, Ko Lanta is still relatively small. There are none of the big supermarkets or chain stores here. I think we have 5 to 10 years until the development will get really intense. But of course there are plenty of hotels and resorts. It took more or less amost 2 years to make people on a larger scale understand what KoHub represents. The concept of remote work, coworking and digital nomadism is new for most people. That’s why these labels, as annoying as they sometimes can be, are needed. As people started to understand that we are not just an Internet café but a community I was keen to get our community involved with the local community. It took a long time to built the contacts and trust, but nowadays we have great initiatives going on, such as assisting with teaching English at local schools or doing other kinds of projects with locals. The Tourist Authority of Thailand also got curious. They see us as an opportunity to develop tourism during the low-season, during which everyone on the island is struggling to make ends meet. Our members inject money into the local economy when few others are here. People start noticing that, especially our neighbors. Regarding the charity projects, we are doing them not doing only to help out the locals but also to bring new members here. Charity activities always bring you closer to local people and culture. You change the word locally, not globally. For members, that aspect can be very attractive, too.

Are you happy with where KoHob is right now?

When I came her first, I was the only nerd on the island, so to speak. Now Kohub has really transformed things. We put Ko Lanta on the map as a place to visit for those location-independent workers who are in South-East Asia. And the general trends are pointing into the right direction. In a Forbes ranking, KoHub was ranked second among the best coworking spaces in Asia, and for Inc.com KoHub is one of the 5 most beautiful places in the world to start a business. So that’s very encouraging. However, from a finance point-of-view, we are still vulnerable. Two bad months is enough to put us out of business. So we have to be very disciplined with spending and prioritizing.

How much do you do KoHub for the money?

The only constant thought about money I have is to be sustainable and to have the means to not only survive but to thrive. I do not want to stand still, I want to develop KoHub further.

That sounds as if you would have nothing against opening additional KoHub locations elsewhere.

You know, of course I had that thought. I have been approached about that question as well. I have some side ideas in terms of opening up a more globalized community. A lot of our members are meeting at other spaces when in other countries. So we got a great culture. It would be fitting to give them spaces to collaborate elsewhere. But I am very nervous about the idea. The coworking movement is a very open collaborative movement at the moment. Young, fresh, with a lot of independents. I spoke to quite a few who have multiple spaces. The general consensus is that it does not scale well. You inherit all the old problems and new ones. Physical community dynamics are very tricky to replicate. You need to be very sensitive to the local environment. However, to repeat myself: I do not want to stand still. So we’ll see what happens next with KoHub.

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Weekly Links & Thoughts #87


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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  • When You Change the World and No One Notices (2)

    After you have read this piece, you might start to think about specific contemporary projects, inventions or innovations and wonder whether they’ll change the world some day without anyone having noticed yet.
  • We might live in a computer program, but it may not matter (3)

    It’s amazing how much attention the idea of the world as a simulation is receiving lately. But not unjustified: Considering how considerate our societies are regarding the stories of religion and gods, there is no way to treat this hypothesis in a less serious manner. In fact, rather the opposite. Nevertheless, l’ll remain skeptical of all explanations which lack proper scientific proof until proof is there. There is little intrinsically positive in just believing things.
  • VR Pioneer Chris Milk: Virtual Reality Will Mirror Life Like Nothing Else Before (2)

    This is a very catchy assessment of the unique nature of VR: Every other medium is an externalized version of an event, but VR can bridge that gap.

  • Are Cities Too Complicated? (2)

    Whenever I travel to cities in Asia I think to myself how much more logical, coherent and smart they feel compared to those in for example Europe. This text explains the phenomenon: Those cities that have been growing and evolving over many centuries have reached a state of “overcomplication” due to the many different types of infrastructures and technology systems that power them and that were built up over long periods of time.
  • Apple’s luxury watch dream is over (2)

    When the Apple Watch launched, it led to intense debates about whether a smartwatch can successfully by marketed as a luxury accessory comparable to analog watches. Now the answer is clear: no.
  • Is Elon Musk trying to do too much too fast? (2)

    We’ll really only know once he either has achieved everything he aims for or once his companies will be saved from bankruptcy through an acquisition by a tech giant.
  • Google, Uber, and the Evolution of Transportation-as-a-Service (3)

    Extensive analysis of the looming rivalry between Uber and Google.
  • What is Silicon Valley? (3)

    That sounds like a trivial question, but for most people, the answer actually requires a longer explanation. This is it, worth reading even for those who are well aware of what Silicon Valley represents.
  • Venture Communism: How China Is Building a Start-Up Boom (3)

    When China does stuff, it often becomes a thing of extreme dimensions: “Just one city, Suzhou, near Shanghai, has announced it will open 300 incubators by 2020 to house 30,000 start-ups.
  • Now that anyone can be a DJ, is the art form dead? (2)

    Quite a predictable but still significant take on how the switch to digital has changed (and in many ways, devaluatedt) the art of DJing.
  • Apple and the Peoples’ Tax Revolution (1)

    The author of this piecee suggests that the European Union’s actions against Apple’s tax evasion tactics will be the beginning of bigger, people-driven movement to force legislature (and thereby company’s) to pay the intended tax rates on profits.

Podcast episode of the week


Weekly Links & Thoughts #86


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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  • Yuval Noah Harari on big data, Google and the end of free will (3)

    A brilliant analysis of our age of “dataism”, put into an historical context, by the author of Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari.
  • Robots Can Restore Our Humanity (2)

    And here we have an optimistic take on how robots and automation will force our society to give up on the scalable efficiency model which is increasingly disfunctional anyway, and to find ways to evolve human work. One of many smart pharagraphs from the piece: “Go check out a children’s playground and show me a child that doesn’t have creativity and imagination. We all have that potential and a strong desire to express that potential. The challenge is that we have been processed by a series of institutions, starting with our school systems, that were designed to squeeze out these attributes in the name of scalable efficiency.”
  • Which Country Would Win in the Programming Olympics? (2)

    In part surprising and generally very insightful rankings about where the world’s best programmers come from. Switzerland is among the leading countries, whereas the U.S. and India didn’t make it into the top 20.
  • Other People’s Money: The Apple Story (1)

    A brief, knowledgeable commentary on the various aspects of the EU commission’s billion dollar tax decisions regarding Apple.
  • Nations Can Be Startups, Too (1)

    The metaphor of a nation as startup is useful because it can totally change one’s thinking of what’s possible.
  • No Filter: DJ Khaled and the FTC’s Snapchat Problem (2)

    With the rise of Snapchat’s and Instagram’s stories feature, ephemeral user-generated content is becoming widespread. That causes headache for regulators such as the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC): One of its tasks is to ensure that advertisements and paid-for product endorsements are clearly marked as such. However, the investigation of violations is difficult if celebrities and influencers such as DJ Khaled get paid for saying things in a Snapchat or Instagram Story that vanishes 24 hours later.
  • How Uber’s Failure in Japan Can Help Startups Everywhere (3)

    A smart analysis of Uber’s failed attempt to apply the “U.S. playbook” everywhere in the world.
  • How Nextdoor reduced racist posts by 75% (2)

    Intelligent user design and dialogues can help to build a less hostile online environment, as the experiments of leading U.S. neighborhood network Nextdoor have proven.
  • Qwant: The encrypted search engine that really could challenge Google (2)

    Informative profile of Qwant, an ambitious search engine founded and based in France, highlighting among other things the challenges that competitors of Google are facing.
  • Alexa, give me the news: How outlets are tailoring their coverage for Amazon’s new platform (3)

    There is a chance that Amazon’s smart home speaker Echo and the corresponding software-based personal assistant Alexa will emerge as an important platform for news distribution. This report details the early trials and experimental approaches by media outlets.
  • How I Used & Abused My Tesla (3)

    The ultimate hype article, featuring a Tesla that has been used as an Uber car as well as the “world’s fastest hotel” on Airbnb. However, apart from the evangelism, the post also provides plenty of interesting insights.
  • Volvo is quietly becoming a tech superpower (2)

    While Tesla is the tech community’s favorite car, most incumbents from the automotive industry are scaling up their tech ambitions as well. Another frontrunner is Volvo, according to this piece.
  • Facebook recommended that this psychiatrist’s patients friend each other (2)

    The strange thing with Facebook is that it is uncomfortably “aware” in moments when users don’t appreciate it, but it fails to be intelligent when it actually would be useful: Like when I am adding a person who stands next to me by typing his/her name, and Facebook doesn’t seem to leverage our (approximate) location to make a quick suggestion.
  • The Difference Between “Remote” and “Remote-First” (2)

    My favorite way of working is remotely, so no one needs to convince me of the appeal of a “remote first” company culture.
  • Rethinking Retail: When Location Is a Liability (2)

    Giant retail chains are struggling in an environment in which their cost-intense portfolio of local stores and the attached old-school mindset is becoming a burden.
  • Indian ISPs Speed Up BitTorrent by ‘Peering’ with a Torrent Site (1)

    Fantastic example of how the torrent technology can be used for innovation.
  • Using the Blockchain to Fuel a P2P Solar Revolution (2)

    One of the sheer unlimited possible use cases of the Blockchain.
  • Victory for Net Neutrality in Europe (1)

    I am putting this link at the end of the list, despite its huge importance. But hopefully everyone has heard the good news already. Thanks to all the activists who relentlessly fought for this over so many years.

Recently on meshedsociety.com

  • The one big question about today’s groundbreaking emerging technologies

    Will Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality, autonomous vehicles, electric vehicles, automation & robots, drones, Blockchains and 3D printing reach mass-market adoption all at once, or will a few of these emerging technologies go through more years or even decades of maturing? The answer will shape the next years and decades.

Video of the week

  • Flow of People

    A video showing how long time it takes for 200 people to cross a starting line, depending on their means of transportation. Not sure what to conclude, but obviously, cars take much more space, which causes delays.

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The one big question about today’s groundbreaking emerging technologies


A German version of this article can be found here.

We are living in an extraordinary time, characterized by a continuous acceleration of (digital) progress. The emergence of various groundbreaking technological innovations overlaps. The time period within which their impact unfolds is shorter than ever in history.

The following trends are widely considered the most relevant and the closest to large-scale breakthrough:

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, Mixed Reality
  • Autonomous vehicles
  • Electric vehicles
  • Automation & robots
  • Drones (especially for shipping and logistics, but also in military context)
  • Blockchain
  • 3D print

This list is not complete, but it contains the areas which currently receive most public attention, which constantly produce news and which could quickly push economies and societies into a period of much more radical changes than what we have seen so far.

However, the big question is this: Which of these technologies are really ready for prime time? The laws of hypes ensure that no large expectations, prominent backers, public attention and successful pilots can guarantee that a new technology or innovative approach won’t turn out to be unfinished and in need of several more years or even decades of tinkering. Continue Reading


Weekly Links & Thoughts #85


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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Weekly Links & Thoughts #84


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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  • This is Your Life in Silicon Valley (2)

    Even though this parody piece focuses on people actually living in and around the Silicon Valley, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the regular readers of this weekly link list recognize themselves in parts. My favorite quote: “You are all too busy making your own points and citing articles to really listen to each other. ” I really know that one. Others do, too (thanks @polexa for sharing this video).
  • Scenes From the Terrifying, Already Forgotten JFK Airport Shooting That Wasn’t (3)

    A gripping eye-witness account of a recent mass panic that took place at New York’s JFK airport after people thought they were experiencing a mass shooting. A powerful reminder of how false stories evolve, spread and set people in motion.
  • “A Honeypot For Assholes”: Inside Twitter’s 10-Year Failure To Stop Harassment (3)

    Twitter didn’t like this lengthy Buzzfeed feature. Unsurprisingly. But clearly, the company failed in coming up with effective tools and solutions to the troll problem. However, one needs to be fair and admit that stopping harassment on a global publishing service is more complicated than some seem to think. Regulating speech is a messy business with possibly far-reaching consequences for every user. Imagine you want to jokingly tweet “You are such a moron” to your best friend on Twitter but it doesn’t let you because its algorithm has identified this tweet as harassment. This wouldn’t be a good approach. Nevertheless, Twitter needs to do something. My hope is that it will follow a principle based on the idea that everyone keeps their right to post whatever they want, but that every user also gets the right to not having to see what others are trying to catch their attention with. Currently, that’s not really possible (except for verified accounts, which are being rolled out more broadly, but which still are not available to everyone). If you want to use Twitter the way it is intended, you are basically forced to pay attention to your mentions.
  • No Control: Thoughts On The End Of The Headphone Jack And The Future Of Digital Music (3)

    Smart, critical analysis of Apple’s love-hate-relationship with DRM and the problematic decision to remove the headphone jack from the iPhone – which, like so many things, can been viewed through an optimistic lense and a pessimistic one, depending on one’s focus.
  • The Worry Piece (2)

    An accurate description of the widespread type of opinion piece that expresses concern about the negative impact of technology on social behavior and personal well-being; the one that always includes the recommendation that people should read a book.
  • The Internet Doesn’t Route Around Surveillance (1)

    A rather depressing quote from the article: “If people are concerned about the confidentiality and integrity of their communications, they will have to treat the internet at large as a hostile network over which one must tunnel securely.”
  • Cortana: The spy in Windows 10 (2)

    The trade-off between a futuristic user experience & privacy seems to be especially big with Windows 10 and Cortana. Or maybe it’s just the same as with every other current system.
  • The Chinese answer to Apple is falling apart (1)

    In technology, you never know which company will be the next to rather quickly go through the process of rise & fall. The latest contender: China’s former smartphone shooting star Xiaomi.
  • China’s big Artificial Intelligence (AI) push (2)

    Meanwhile, Chinese companies are making big advances with the proliferation of AI, fostered by a favorable environment for this discipline, such as the weak protection of people’s personal data.
  • Putting a computer in your brain is no longer science fiction (2)

    Great. Still waiting for that chip which would provide me with perfect skills in a specific language. I’m serious, actually. I cannot prioritize learning Mandarin & Arabic right now, but it’d love to speak it.
  • Edward Snowden is now earning up to $25,000 a speech (1)

    I admire what Snowden did and the risks he took. Good to hear that he can fund his (probably rather weird) life in Russia. However, I had the “pleasure” to listen to one of his live interviews (at an event that otherwise was fantastic). It felt as if it was pre-recorded. Everything Snowden said sounded canned. His answers to questions were too long, which I interpret as a sign that he has started to take himself way too seriously. Overall he gave the impression that he is so intertwined with “his” topic that there is no room for any doubt, any joke, any counter argument, any human touch. It makes me a bit wary of him.
  • Move over, phones. Cars are becoming the new mobile target for marketers (2)

    Sounds like another reason not to own a car. Although, of course, one could – as always – argue that showing highly targeted personalized ads to people driving are better than the most irrelevant billboards you stare at while waiting for or sitting in the subway. But somehow, I personally don’t feel that way.
  • News is afflicted by its own climate change: It’s called social (2)

    A pretty clever metaphor.
  • Revenge of the nerds (2)

    The Economist points to a trend its author observed among Silicon Valley’s big shots: The former nerds are using their freedom, technology and (tiny parts) of their money to turn themselves into superfit “jocks”.
  • The bandwidth bottleneck that is throttling the Internet (3)

    Very informative post about the latest challenges and expected solutions to satisfy the ever increasing need of bandwidth.
  • Inside the mind of a venture capitalist (2)

    Bad news for those not in the rocket business: These days, a venture capitalist is more likely to fund a startup aiming for space than a social web app. At least this one.
  • Pirate Bay is The King of Torrents Once Again (1)

    I lost track of how many times over the past 10 years I’ve been reading about news that sounded like the end of The Pirate Bay. And yet, it’s still there. Astonishing.
  • Forget Self-Driving Cars: Autonomous Trucks, Trains And Ships Will Transform Commerce (2)

    Smart drivers of trucks & captains of ships would already today keep their eyes open for that online course about remote management of driverless truck, train & ship fleets. They’ll need this skill soon if they want to have a future in their industry.
  • Kanye West, Leonard Cohen And Death Of The Creative Full Stop (2)

    Interesting point: Why are most music releases considered finished once they have been released (with the exception of remixes)? Yes, mostly because of historical limitations of physical media. In the digital age, the approach maybe should change. Because it could.

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Weekly Links & Thoughts #83


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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Recently on meshedsociety.com

  • Stories is to Instagram what Streaming was to Netflix

    Is Instagram’s new Stories feature just a little gimmick for Instagram fans to play with? I don’t think so. I’d argue that it’s the future of Instagram. The same way as Streaming was the future for Netflix when Netflix still was a DVD-by-mail company.

Video of the week

  • William Talking Blockchains At Google

    Sometimes, hearing someone speak about a complex technology is so much more comprehensible than reading about it. That’s how I felt when watching this talk. Well and vididly explained what the Blockchain is and what it can be used for.

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Stories is to Instagram what Streaming was to Netflix


Instagram Stories

Here is a German version of this text.

In less than 2 years, Netflix will celebrate the 20th anniversary since its public launch. Over the period of those 2 decades, the face and business model of the company has changed completely. What started as an US-only DVD-by-mail service became a global platform for on-demand streaming of shows and movies.

At some point after the millennium shift, the company’s CEO Reed Hastings realized that physical media has no future. In order to survive, he had to “pivot” his company and switch to streaming video. But he could not do it from one day to another. He didn’t want to damage the brand and upset its millions of subscribers. Furthermore, he needed the splendid revenue from the DVD business to finance the new initiative. So he introduced streaming as an additional service and turned it into the company’s core only very slowly, over a couple of years. Today, the DVD-by-mail still exists, but has lost 75 % of its members since the peak in 2010. At one point in the future, it will vanish.

The history of Netflix as analogy for Instagram

The Netflix case is one of the rather rare examples where a company managed to radically transform itself before technical advancements and changing customer desires would make it obsolete. What Netflix pulled of can help to understand recent news coming from Instagram.

Instagram just introduced its “Stories” feature, which lets people share ephemeral photos and videos that disappear after 24 hours. As has been widely reported and acknowledged by Instagram’s CEO Kevin Systrom, Stories is almost identical to a Snapchat feature with the same name (“Stories”). Whether one likes it or not doesn’t matter: Instagram Stories is the new thing, and it plays a critical strategic role for the Facebook-owned company: There is a chance that Instagram’s iconic stream of carefully crafted, heavily filtered shots is the equivalent of Netflix’ DVD-by-mail offering and is poised to become outdated and neglected over time. Applying this analogy, Snapchat Stories won’t just be an additional feature within Instagram. It would eventually become the core and heart of the app; what Instagram stands for.

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Certainly, it’s much harder to predict the future of the classical Instagram feed than it was for the Netflix CEO to forecast the decline of the DVD. However, there is a case to be made for seeing Instagram’s scrollable photo & video feed as threatened in the mid- to long term:

Instagram’s feed was built for the early smartphone years

When Instagram launched back in 2010, smartphones just experienced their grand breakthrough. Suddenly, millions carried fairly good cameras in their pockets, and Instagram as well as a couple of copycats leveraged these cameras and people’s excitement about the new ability to share everything they see with the world, instantly and edited for beauty.

In 2016, the novelty of smartphone cameras and Instagram’s filters has worn off. As has the excitement and enthusiasm about fine-tuned photos of coffee art, sunsets, beaches and colorful food compositions. Of course millions still publish these kind of things on the service every day. Once something becomes a habit, it sticks. Nevertheless, over time and with new, more innovative and more creative services, an existing app concept can start to feel antiquated. This is exactly what Snapchat Stories did to Instagram: It made Instagram and its endless scrolling look and feel a bit dated. The seamless sharing and consumption of videos (and photos) on Snapchat is just a more modern, contemporary and fun experience (the clunky, not intuitive user interface aside). Also, after years of edited Instagram photos showing the happy, pretty and sometimes artificial sides of life, authenticity is in great demand. Snapchat Stories’ ephemeral character – meaning that photos and videos can only be watched for 24 hours – totally hit a nerve.

Usage patterns of long-term users matter

Again, it is hard to predict the future of the Instagram feed. The app keeps growing and it just crossed the 500 million active user milestone. However, what’s more interesting is whether early users are still as much into Instagram as before. At least in the US, the user numbers seem to have stalled. Among US teens, Snapchat has risen to become the “most important social network”. Also in the US, Snapchat has overtaken Instagram regarding the amount of time users spend in the app.

These statistics don’t tell too much about usage patterns of long-term Instagram users. But considering these statistics and factoring in the general excitement about video and services specifically built for video as well as the common human tendency to seek new experiences, I’d say chances are bigger that Instagram’s feed won’t exist anymore in 5 years than that it still will exist. However, the only entity that might be able to make an accurate prediction right now based on actual user data is Instagram itself. And the fact that it launched Stories the way it did and basically forced it into everyone’s field of attention – even though Stories must be considered a completely different product than Instagram’s scrollable feed – is an indicator for that the company could be witnessing, on average, decreasing user activity of certain user groups.

What happens next

In the end, there are 2 ways to understand the launch of Instagram Stories: Either CEO Kevin Systrom and his boss, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, think that Instagram should accommodate two or even more different types of services within one app in order to compete with Snapchat (in fact, Snapchat pretty much also consists of multiple different products). Or they indeed see Snapchat Stories as something comparable to Netflix’s early streaming ambitions: A new service which eventually could replace the original one. That of course would require Stories to become a hit. At the moment, even Systrom and Zuckerberg probably don’t have enough internal data to know for sure that Stories will catch on – probably. So obviously they won’t have decided yet about a roadmap for abandoning the feed. But their reasoning might go like this: If user adoption for Stories looks good and reaches certain set Key Performance Indicators (KPA), it will be pushed hard and given an increasing amount of attention and room within the Instagram app. If that happens, the importance of and activity within the classical Instagram feed will naturally drop. And that would be its death*.

Instagram Stories has the potential to be a pivot akin to the one Netflix did. But it all depends on whether users like it, of course.

*There is bonus scenario: If user adoption goes well, Instagram could eventually launch a second app and force people who started to enjoy the Stories feature into that one, similarly to how Facebook proceeded with spinning off Messenger. But that would preserve Instagram the way it is and thus only makes sense if Instagram’s internal numbers do NOT indicate, on average, a decreasing activity among long-term users.

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Weekly Links & Thoughts #82


Here is this week’s edition of meshedsociety.com weekly, loaded with thoughtful opinion pieces, interesting analyses and significant yet under-reported information bits from the digital and technology world. Published and annotated every Thursday (CET), just in time so you have something good to read over the weekend.

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