books
The urge to predict the future – and how to do it right
The best specialist books are those that immediately impact the reader’s behaviour. I just finished Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Telock and Dan Gardner – and experienced this very effect.
As the title suggests, the book investigates and explains what qualities and skills are needed to make accurate predictions. The insights are based on a large-scale forecasting experiment conducted by one of the two authors and involving hundreds of forecasters.
Being able to excel in forecasting can be extremely valuable. In the field of digital technology, forecasting is a preferred activity by many. Pundits, analysts, entrepreneurs and everyone only slightly affiliated with the industry is constantly trying to predict the future. For financial gains through wise strategic decisions involving foresight, in order to build a professional reputation as visionary, or – unfortunately – in order to advance personal interests or the interests of “the forecaster’s tribe” (as the authors of the book put it). Continue Reading
Sapiens
I just finished one of the best books I have ever read: “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind”, written by Yuval Harari in 2011. It was recommended to me by a friend and I also read about it on Albert Wenger’s blog. As the title suggests, the book gives readers a very compact and coherent overview about how humanity and civilization came to be, and why it ended up where it is today.
Most importantly, the book helps to better get the big picture. To understand how and why certain movements, ideologies, religions and memes have evolved; why individuals, groups and societies act in their sometimes strange and even destructive ways.
Sapiens is not a history book, even though it follows a chronological order, from the first life on earth until the present, eventually offering an outlook of what might come in the future. Rather, it is a book about humanity and life itself. Continue Reading