predictions
Simulating worlds
Some time during the past weekend, I ended up in a rather silly but for me entertaining thought experiment: I was musing about that there should be a way to produce the so called “hindsight bias” in advance of an event. What started as a joking idea quickly led me to some more serious reflections.
The term hindsight bias (according to Wikipedia also called “knew-it-all-along effect”) refers to a cognitive bias which brings people to the belief that the outcome of a certain event or situation was the only logical and possible result. Before the specific event, uncertainty about what happens next is widespread and predictions about the future are varying widely. But in the aftermath people experience a feeling of obvious and overwhelming retroactive predictability of whatever happened. Suddenly, everyone claims to always have expected this very outcome.
If you debate the question of how Artificial Intelligence, Virtual Reality or self-driving cars will change human life, you can hear plenty of different theories and predictions. However, in 20 or 30 years, people will point out that whatever will have happened after AI, VR and self-driving cars took over, was the one and only logical scenario. Continue Reading
The urge to predict the future – and how to do it right
The best specialist books are those that immediately impact the reader’s behaviour. I just finished Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Telock and Dan Gardner – and experienced this very effect.
As the title suggests, the book investigates and explains what qualities and skills are needed to make accurate predictions. The insights are based on a large-scale forecasting experiment conducted by one of the two authors and involving hundreds of forecasters.
Being able to excel in forecasting can be extremely valuable. In the field of digital technology, forecasting is a preferred activity by many. Pundits, analysts, entrepreneurs and everyone only slightly affiliated with the industry is constantly trying to predict the future. For financial gains through wise strategic decisions involving foresight, in order to build a professional reputation as visionary, or – unfortunately – in order to advance personal interests or the interests of “the forecaster’s tribe” (as the authors of the book put it). Continue Reading
Do you make a lot of predictions that turn out to be wrong? Then be afraid of Staked
If you have opinions about the future, the Internet is a great place to make predictions: Most people won’t remember predictions that turn out to be incorrect (except maybe if you are an industry heavyweight). But if a bold forecast comes true, the person who made it can proudly (or subtly) refer to it and gain reputation points. Believe me, as someone who has been writing about tech since 2007, I know how this game works.
But a new app might make it much harder to come up with a host of failed predictions and yet to gain a lot of respect for the lucky few that match the facts. A very interesting app. So interesting that I had to write a dedicated post about it. Continue Reading